5G通信产业链 A股公司深度剖析

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5G行情和5G的传输速率一样,迅雷不及掩耳盗铃儿响叮当之势,本篇文章不在赘述趋势,而具体聚焦产业链的上市公司。

一、全球进展

国际电信联盟(ITU)是主管信息通信技术事务的联合国机构,负责分配和管理全球无线电频谱与卫星轨道资源,制定全球电信标准。2012年,ITU开启5G标准研究。根据其发布的5G推进时间表,5G初步技术标准将于2019年6月敲定,最终标准预计在2020年10月的ITU第36次会议中最终确定。

根据目前各国发布的5G商业化进展,5G将于2019年正式进入商业化阶段。其中,韩国、美国最为领先,已于2018年12月进入部分商用。中、日、欧紧随其后,预计将于2019年开始预商用,2020年进入规模商用阶段。

二、产业链

5G网络的投资主要是对接入网中的基站、承载网、核心网中的机房/数据中心的建设。另外,智能终端的射频模块产业链也将受益。因此,主要从终端射频前端、基站、承载网、核心网中的机房/数据中心角度分析5G产业链的投资机会。

1、基站端:天线、PCB

相比于传统的TDD网络的天线基本是2天线、4天线或8天线,Massive MIMO在基站安装的天线可以达到128、256根或更多,更多的天线意味着5G天线模块更高的价值。

5G宏基站内PCB价值量约为15104元/站,室分站PCB价值量约是宏站的30%-40%,约5286元/站。因此,5G宏基站PCB价值量是4G(4692元)的3.2倍,提升空间较大。

宏基站负责低速率、高移动性类业务的传输,微基站主要承载高带宽业务。5G建网初期,基站的建设主要以宏基站为主,再用小基站作补充,加大、加深覆盖区域。在实现5G基础广泛覆盖后,随着5G网络深入部署,小基站的需求将进一步扩大。

中商产业研究院预计,5G宏基站将从5G建设初期2019年的98万个增长到商用中期2025年的1180万个。毫米波高频段的小站覆盖范围是10-20m,应用于热点区域或更高容量业务场景,其数量保守估计将是宏站的2倍。

基站端重点公司:

2、终端:射频

天线开关、滤波器、双工器、PA、低噪音放大器是组成射频前端的主要部件。

5G对手机射频模块的变革在于:(1)增加的新频段直接提升了射频器件的需求;(2)毫米波的引入使适用于高频的BAW滤波器需求明显增加;(3)MIMO技术升级带来了天线及相关器件需求;(4)5G的高频通信使射频制作工艺从目前的GaAs升级到了GaN。

Yole预计,受益5G,射频前端市场规模有望从2016年101.1亿美元增长到2022年的227.8亿美元,6年复合增速14.5%。其中滤波器6年复合增速达到21%。

新增一个频段需要增加相应频段的滤波器、天线开关、PA等射频前端器件,以支持信号在该频段的顺利发射与接收,直接带来射频前端滤波器、功率放大器、天线开关以及电容电阻电感的单机需求。

目前射频产业主要由美国和日本企业主导。射频前端来看,Murata、TDK、Taiyo Yuden和Skyworks是SAW滤波器主要玩家;Avago和Qorvo则基本垄断了全球BAW滤波器市场;Skyworks、Qorvo和Murata基本瓜分了全球PA市场。

国内企业方面,信维通信、麦捷科技、天通股份积极布局SAW滤波器;紫光展锐、汉天下、中铺微电子进入PA领域;天线方面则有信维通信、立讯精密和硕贝德;此外,国内电感龙头顺络电子也有望受益5G带来的射频变革。

终端射频重点公司:

3、核心网&承载网:通信设备、光模块、光纤

通信设备:

5G规模商用前期,运营商将开展大规模网络建设,设备投资占比最大。中国信通院预计,到2020年仅国内市场5G网络设备的投资将超过2200亿元。

根据IHS在2017年的预测,华为以28%的市占率成为通信设备最大赢家,爱立信和诺基亚分裂二、三位,中兴通信以13%的市占率名列第四。

光模块:

光模块主要用于实现电- -光和光- -电信号的转换,是5G网络建设的关键。

预计一个宏基站将使用8个光模块。5G建设高峰期预计每年需要建设1000万以上的宏基站,因此仅基站前传部分每年就需要上亿个光模块,加上中传、城域网和骨干网部分,预计未来5G网络的建设将带动光模块需求的爆发。

目前10Gb/s及以下的低端光模块已实现国产替代,25Gb/s以上高端仍被日、美垄断。全球光模块市场前十大厂商中只有光迅科技(002281)上榜,市占率也只有5.6%。

光纤:

光纤通信是利用光纤来传输信息的通信系统,使中继距离达数千公里以上。而传统电缆只能传送1.5km,微波50km,根本无法与之相比拟。

Fiber BB Association 预计5G光纤用量是4G的16倍,即使考虑我国4G基站密度高,基站数不会增加那么多,但预计光纤用量仍将在4G的2倍以上。

通信设备、光模块、光纤重点上市公司

来源:巨丰投顾

作者:秦亮 执业证书:A0680616110002

免责声明:以上内容仅供参考,不构成具体操作建议,据此操作盈亏自负、风险自担。

5G通信产业链 A股公司深度剖析相关图片:

5G通信产业链 A股公司深度剖析英文翻译:

The transmission rate of 5G prices and 5G is same, bell of pilfer of as sudden as lightning the situation of noisy dingdong, this piece the article is absent trend of give uncecessary details, and of catenary of specific focusing industry appear on the market company.

One, the whole world makes progress

International Telecommunication Union (ITU) the U.N. orgnaization that is work of technology of director information communication, responsible allocation and manage global radio spectrum and satellitic orbit resource, make global report beacon allow. 2012, standard of ITU open 5G studies. The 5G that releases according to its advances schedule, brigadier of mark of 5G preliminary technology is decided at will be being knocked in June 2019, final standard predicts the ITU in October 2020 the 36th times in the conference decide finally.

Commercialize progress according to the 5G that at present each country releases, 5G general 2019 make one's bow commercializes level. Among them, korea, United States is most banner, already used at entering partial business in December 2018. After medium, day, Europe tightens therewith, predict to will begin 2019 beforehand business is used, entered dimensions business to use level 2020.

2, industrial catenary

The investment of 5G network basically is a butt joint into the net base station, bear the weight of the computer room in net, core net / the construction of data center. Additional, the catenary of industry of radio frequency module of intelligent terminal also will be benefited. Accordingly, main from front of terminal radio frequency, base station, bear the weight of the computer room in net, core net / the investment opportunity of catenary of industry of 5G of analysis of data center angle.

1, base station end: Aerial, PCB

The photograph is basiccer than the antenna at traditional TDD network be 2 antenna, 4 antenna or 8 antenna, massive MIMO is in base the antenna that the station installs can be achieved 128, root or 256 more, more antenna imply the value with 5G antenna higher module.

5G grand base magnitude of value of the PCB inside the station is 15104 yuan about / station, magnitude of value of PCB of room cent station is the 30%-40% of grand station about, about 5286 yuan / station. Accordingly, 5G grand base station PCB magnitude of value is 4G (4692 yuan) 3.2 times, promotion space is larger.

Grand base the station is in charge of low rate, tall mobile sex kind of business transmit, small base the station basically bears the weight of tall bandwidth business. 5G builds net initial stage, base the construction of the station is main with grand base the station is given priority to, reoccupy is small base the station makes complement, increase, deepen cover area. After implementation 5G foundation is enclothed extensively, as deploy of 5G network development, small base the demand of the station will expand further.

Business industry academy predicts in, 5G grand base the station will build initial stage from 5G 980 thousand growth 2019 use metaphase to business 11.8 million of 2025. Millimeter wave is high frequency paragraph way station covers range is 10-20m, apply at heat area or setting of higher capacity business, its amount is 2 times estimation will be grand station more conservative.

Base the station carries key company:

2, terminal: Radio frequency

The main part that amplifier of aerial switch, filter, diplexer, PA, low noise is front of compositive radio frequency.

Of module of radio frequency of 5G adversary machine change depend on: (1) addition new frequency Duan Zhi accepts the demand that promoted radio frequency parts of an apparatus; (2) of millimeter wave introduce make apply to high frequency BAW filter demand to increase apparently; (3) MIMO technology upgrades brought aerial and demand of relevant parts of an apparatus; (4) the high frequency communication of 5G makes radio frequency makes craft upgrade to GaN from current GaAs.

Yole predicts, be benefited 5G, hopeful of dimensions of market of radio frequency front from 2016 10.11 billion dollar rises the 22.78 billion dollar 2022, 6 years compound add fast 14.5% . Among them filter 6 years compound add fast achieve 21% .

Increase a frequency newly paragraph need increases corresponding frequency paragraph the parts of an apparatus of radio frequency front such as switch of filter, antenna, PA, in order to support signal in this frequency paragraph blast off smoothly with receive, the stand-alone demand that brings inductance of switch of amplifier of filter of radio frequency front, power, antenna and capacitance resistor directly.

At present radio frequency produces owner to want to be guided by the United States and Japanese proprietor of an enterprise. In light of radio frequency front, murata, TDK, Taiyo Yuden and Skyworks are SAW filter main player; Avago and Qorvo are basic forestall market of global BAW filter; Skyworks, Qorvo and Murata whacked global PA market basically.

Domestic company side, science and technology of nimble of the communication that believe dimension, wheat, day opens share filter of active position SAW; Violet light exhibits vigor, Chinese the world, medium shop microelectronics enters PA field; Aerial respect has mind of shellfish of Heshuo of the communication that believe dimension, nicety establishing dispatch; In addition, electron of suitable sth resembling a net of domestic inductance bibcock also hopeful is benefited the radio frequency that 5G brings changes.

Company of key of terminal radio frequency:

3, core net & bears the weight of net: Communication equipment, smooth module, fiber-optic

Communication equipment:

5G dimensions business uses early days, operation business will begin extensive network construction, installation cost is occupied than the biggest. Chinese letter connects a courtyard to predict, to 2020 only the investment of equipment of network of home market 5G will exceed 220 billion yuan.

Be in according to IHS 2017 forecast, china lead to be occupied with the city of 28% make communication equipment the biggest win the home, love establishs letter and Nuojiya to break up 2, 3, resurgence communication is occupied with the city of 13% rate rank 4.

Smooth module:

Smooth module basically is used at realizing report - - Guang Heguang - - the changeover of telegraphic date, it is the linchpin that 5G network builds.

Predict grand base the station will use 8 smooth module. 5G construction fastigium predicts to need every year to build 10 million above grand base station, accordingly only base the part is passed to need on 100 million smooth module every year before the station, jiashangzhong is passed, net of city land with certain boundaries and backbone net share, the construction of network of predicting future 5G erupts those who drive smooth module demand.

At present module already realized 10Gb/s and the following low end light homebred replace, 25Gb/s above high end still by day, beautiful forestall. Global light has smooth fast science and technology only in before module market 10 big firms (002281) on a list of names posted up, city is occupied rate also have 5.6% only.

Fiber-optic:

Fiber-optic communication is the communication system that benefit consumed fine will come to to transmit information, make relay the distance amounts to above of thousands of kilometer. And traditional cable can convey only 1.5km, microwave 50km, cannot be likened to to it at all.

Fiber BB Association predicts 5G is 16 times dosage is 4G more fiber-optic, although consider our country density of 4G radical station is high, base station number won't increase so much, but predict fiber-optic dosage will still be in the 2 times above of 4G.

Communication equipment, smooth module, fiber-optic key appears on the market company

Origin: Gigantic abundant is cast consider

Author: Qin Liang hold industry letter: A0680616110002

Avoid duty statement: Above content offers reference only, do not form particular operation to suggest, accordingly conceit of operation profit and loss, risk is carried oneself.

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